DEEST - Departamento de Estatística

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Browsing DEEST - Departamento de Estatística by Author "Almeida, Alexandre Celestino Leite de"

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    Space-time border analysis to evaluate and detect clusters.
    (2021) Duarte, Anderson Ribeiro; Silva, Spencer Barbosa da; Oliveira, Fernando Luiz Pereira de; Almeida, Alexandre Celestino Leite de; Duczmal, Luiz Henrique
    This article presents a statistic to identify the proportional intensity of an area to belong to a space-time cluster, which is very important in spatial statistics. A significant extension of the so-called F-function has been described in detail, which, associated with new technology, allows the evaluation of the intensity of change moments in the time process and outline possible occurrences of clusters. The justification of the study is performed through an extensive review of the current literature of the area. The developed algorithms are detailed via computational experiments with simulated data. Real situations are presented and discussed in detail. Finally, topics for future research are indicated.
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    Vertical social distancing policy is ineffective to contain the COVID-19 pandemic.
    (2020) Duczmal, Luiz Henrique; Almeida, Alexandre Celestino Leite de; Duczmal, Denise Bulgarelli; Alves, Claudia Regina Lindgren; Magalhães, Flávia Costa Oliveira; Lima, Max Sousa de; Silva, Ivair Ramos; Takahashi, Ricardo Hiroshi Caldeira
    Considering numerical simulations, this study shows that the so-called vertical social distancing health policy is ineffective to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. We present the SEIR-Net model, for a network of social group interactions, as a development of the classic mathematical model of SEIR epidemics (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected (symptomatic and asymptomatic)- Removed). In the SEIR-Net model, we can simulate social contacts between groups divided by age groups and analyze different strategies of social distancing. In the vertical distancing policy, only older people are distanced, whereas in the horizontal distancing policy all age groups adhere to social distancing. These two scenarios are compared to a control scenario in which no intervention is made to distance people. The vertical distancing scenario is almost as bad as the control, both in terms of people infected and in the acceleration of cases. On the other hand, horizontal distancing, if applied with the same intensity in all age groups, significantly reduces the total infected people “flattening the disease growth curve”. Our analysis considers the city of Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, but similar conclusions apply to other cities as well. Code implementation of the model in R-language is provided in the supplementary material.