Browsing by Author "Barbosa, David Soeiro"

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    Spatial and temporal trends of visceral leishmaniasis by mesoregion in a southeastern state of Brazil, 2002-2013.
    (2017) Silva, Thais Almeida Marques da; Vital, Wendel Coura; Barbosa, David Soeiro; Oiko, Carla Sayuri Fogaça; Morais, Maria Helena Franco; Tourinho, Bruna Dias; Melo, Diogo Portella Ornelas de; Reis, Ilka Afonso; Carneiro, Mariângela
    This article presents the spatial and temporal distribution of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Minas Gerais State and identifies the greater risk areas of transmission. This study is both timely and substantive because Minas Gerais is an important Brazilian state in the number of cases of visceral leishmaniasis. The results showed that during the 12-year time series the VL had a heterogeneous spatial and temporal distribution in the state of Minas Gerais. Among the 12 existing mesoregions, six (Central Mineira, Jequitinhonha, Metropolitan area of Belo Horizonte, Northwest of Minas, North of Minas, and Vale do Rio Doce) were responsible for the expansion and maintenance of VL in the state. Among them, the Vale do Rio Doce and Jequitinhonha mesoregions presented a considerable increase in the incidence rates of the disease in the last period. In the other six mesoregions only sporadic cases of the disease were reported during the study period. The results of in this study may contribute to a better understanding the dynamic of the disease in Minas Gerais. Also these findings can provide subsidies to assist the actions of the control program of VL.
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    Spatiotemporal dynamics and risk estimates of COVID-19 epidemic in Minas Gerais State : analysis of an expanding process.
    (2021) Vital, Wendel Coura; Cardoso, Diogo Tavares; Ker, Fabricio Thomaz de Oliveira; Magalhães, Fernanda do Carmo; Bezerra, Juliana Maria Trindade; Viegas, Ana Maria; Morais, Maria Helena Franco; Bastos, Leonardo Soares; Reis, Ilka Afonso; Carneiro, Mariângela; Barbosa, David Soeiro
    COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by the recently discovered coronavirus SARS-Cov-2. The disease became pandemic affecting many countries globally, including Brazil. Considering the expansion process and particularities during the initial stages of the epidemic, we aimed to analyze the spatial and spatiotemporal patterns of COVID-19 occurrence and to identify priority risk areas in Minas Gerais State, Southeast Brazil. An ecological study was performed considering all data from human cases of COVID-19 confirmed from the epidemiological week (EW) 11 (March 08, 2020) to EW 26 (June 27, 2020). Crude and smoothed incidence rates were used to analyze the distribution of disease patterns based on global and local indicators of spatial association and space-time risk assessment. Positive spatial autocorrelation and spatial dependence were found. Our results suggest that the metropolitan region of the State capital Belo Horizonte (MRBH) and Vale do Rio Doce mesoregions, as major epidemic foci in the beginning of the expansion process, have had important influence on the dispersion of SARS-CoV-2 in Minas Gerais State. Triangulo Mineiro/Alto Paranaiba region presented the highest risk of infection. In addition, six statistically significant spatiotemporal clusters were identified in the State, three at high risk and three at low risk. Our findings contribute to a greater understanding of the space-time disease dynamic and discuss strategies for identification of priority areas for COVID-19 surveillance and control.
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    Worldwide COVID-19 spreading explained : traveling numbers as a primary driver for the pandemic.
    (2020) Ribeiro, Sérvio Pontes; Cruz, Wesley Francisco Dáttilo da; Barbosa, David Soeiro; Vital, Wendel Coura; Chagas, Igor Aparecido Santana das; Silva, Alcides Volpato Carneiro de Castro e; Morais, Maria Helena Franco; Góes Neto, Aristóteles; Azevedo, Vasco Ariston de Carvalho; Fernandes, Geraldo Wilson Afonso; Reis, Alexandre Barbosa
    The spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the distribution of cases worldwide followed no clear biogeographic, climatic, or cultural trend. Conversely, the internationally busiest cities in all countries tended to be the hardest hit, suggesting a basic, mathematically neutral pattern of the new coronavirus early dissemination. We tested whether the number of flight passengers per time and the number of international frontiers could explain the number of cases of COVID-19 worldwide by a stepwise regression. Analysis were taken by 22 May 2020, a period when one would claim that early patterns of the pandemic establishment were still detectable, despite of community transmission in various places. The number of passengers arriving in a country and the number of international borders explained significantly 49% of the variance in the distribution of the number of cases of COVID-19, and number of passengers explained significantly 14.2% of data variance for cases per million inhabitants. Ecological neutral theory may explain a considerable part of the early distribution of SARS-CoV-2 and should be taken into consideration to define preventive international actions before a next pandemic.