Browsing by Author "Barbosa, Eduardo Augusto Gonçalves"

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    From Spanish Flu to Syndemic COVID-19 : long- standing sanitarian vulnerability of Manaus, warnings from the Brazilian rainforest gateway.
    (2021) Ribeiro, Sérvio Pontes; Reis, Alexandre Barbosa; Cruz, Wesley Francisco Dáttilo da; Silva, Alcides Volpato Carneiro de Castro e; Barbosa, Eduardo Augusto Gonçalves; Vital, Wendel Coura; Góes Neto, Aristóteles; Azevedo, Vasco Ariston de Carvalho; Fernandes, Geraldo Wilson Afonso
    A second deadlier wave of COVID-19 and the causes of the recent public health collapse of Manaus are compared with the Spanish fl u events in that city, and Brazil. Historic sanitarian problems, and its hub position in the Brazilian airway network are combined drivers of deadly events related to COVID-19. These drivers were amplifi ed by misleading governance, highly transmissible variants, and relaxation of social distancing. Several of these same factors may also have contributed to the dramatically severe outbreak of H1N1 in 1918, which caused the death of 10% of the population in seven months. We modelled Manaus parameters for the present pandemic and confi rmed that lack of a proper social distancing might select the most transmissible variants. We succeeded to reproduce a fi rst severe wave followed by a second stronger wave. The model also predicted that outbreaks may last for up to fi ve and half years, slowing down gradually before the disease disappear. We validated the model by adjusting it to the Spanish Flu data for the city, and confi rmed the pattern experienced by that time, of a fi rst stronger wave in October-November 1918, followed by a second less intense wave in February-March 1919.
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    Successive pandemic waves with different virulent strains and the effects of vaccination for SARS-CoV-2.
    (2022) Silva, Alcides Castro e; Bernardes, Américo Tristão; Barbosa, Eduardo Augusto Gonçalves; Chagas, Igor Aparecido Santana das; Cruz, Wesley Francisco Dáttilo da; Reis, Alexandre Barbosa; Ribeiro, Sérvio Pontes
    One hundred years after the flu pandemic of 1918, the world faces an outbreak of a new severe acute respiratory syndrome, caused by a novel coronavirus. With a high transmissibility, the pandemic has spread worldwide, creating a scenario of devastation in many countries. By the middle of 2021, about 3% of the world population had been infected and more than 4 million people had died. Different from the H1N1 pandemic, which had a deadly wave and ceased, the new disease is maintained by successive waves, mainly produced by new virus variants and the small number of vaccinated people. In the present work, we create a version of the SIR model using the spatial localization of persons, their movements, and considering social isolation probabilities. We discuss the effects of virus variants, and the role of vaccination rate in the pandemic dynamics. We show that, unless a global vaccination is implemented, we will have continuous waves of infections.
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    Successive pandemic waves with different virulent strains and the effects of vaccination for SARS-CoV-2.
    (2022) Silva, Alcides Castro e; Bernardes, Américo Tristão; Barbosa, Eduardo Augusto Gonçalves; Chagas, Igor Aparecido Santana das; Dáttilo, Wesley; Reis, Alexandre Barbosa; Ribeiro, Sérvio Pontes
    One hundred years after the flu pandemic of 1918, the world faces an outbreak of a new severe acute respiratory syndrome, caused by a novel coronavirus. With a high transmissibility, the pandemic has spread worldwide, creating a scenario of devastation in many countries. By the middle of 2021, about 3% of the world population had been infected and more than 4 million people had died. Different from the H1N1 pandemic, which had a deadly wave and ceased, the new disease is maintained by successive waves, mainly produced by new virus variants and the small number of vaccinated people. In the present work, we create a version of the SIR model using the spatial localization of persons, their movements, and considering social isolation probabilities. We discuss the effects of virus variants, and the role of vaccination rate in the pandemic dynamics. We show that, unless a global vaccination is implemented, we will have continuous waves of infections.