Worldwide COVID-19 spreading explained : traveling numbers as a primary driver for the pandemic.

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dc.contributor.authorRibeiro, Sérvio Pontes
dc.contributor.authorCruz, Wesley Francisco Dáttilo da
dc.contributor.authorBarbosa, David Soeiro
dc.contributor.authorVital, Wendel Coura
dc.contributor.authorChagas, Igor Aparecido Santana das
dc.contributor.authorSilva, Alcides Volpato Carneiro de Castro e
dc.contributor.authorMorais, Maria Helena Franco
dc.contributor.authorGóes Neto, Aristóteles
dc.contributor.authorAzevedo, Vasco Ariston de Carvalho
dc.contributor.authorFernandes, Geraldo Wilson Afonso
dc.contributor.authorReis, Alexandre Barbosa
dc.date.accessioned2021-09-27T14:12:08Z
dc.date.available2021-09-27T14:12:08Z
dc.date.issued2020pt_BR
dc.description.abstractThe spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the distribution of cases worldwide followed no clear biogeographic, climatic, or cultural trend. Conversely, the internationally busiest cities in all countries tended to be the hardest hit, suggesting a basic, mathematically neutral pattern of the new coronavirus early dissemination. We tested whether the number of flight passengers per time and the number of international frontiers could explain the number of cases of COVID-19 worldwide by a stepwise regression. Analysis were taken by 22 May 2020, a period when one would claim that early patterns of the pandemic establishment were still detectable, despite of community transmission in various places. The number of passengers arriving in a country and the number of international borders explained significantly 49% of the variance in the distribution of the number of cases of COVID-19, and number of passengers explained significantly 14.2% of data variance for cases per million inhabitants. Ecological neutral theory may explain a considerable part of the early distribution of SARS-CoV-2 and should be taken into consideration to define preventive international actions before a next pandemic.pt_BR
dc.identifier.citationRIBEIRO, S. P. et al. Worldwide COVID-19 spreading explained: traveling numbers as a primary driver for the pandemic. Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciencias, v. 92, n. 4, artigo e20201139, 2020. Disponível em: <https://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0001-37652020000700701>. Acesso em: 12 maio 2021.pt_BR
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0001-3765202020201139pt_BR
dc.identifier.issn1678-2690
dc.identifier.urihttp://www.repositorio.ufop.br/jspui/handle/123456789/13804
dc.language.isoen_USpt_BR
dc.rightsabertopt_BR
dc.rights.licenseOs trabalhos publicados no periódico Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências, exceto onde identificado, está sob uma licença Creative Commons que permite copiar, distribuir e transmitir o trabalho, desde que sejam citados o autor e o licenciante. Fonte: Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências <http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_serial&pid=0001-3765&lng=en&nrm=iso>. Acesso em: 23 jan. 2020.pt_BR
dc.subjectVirus disseminationpt_BR
dc.subjectEmergent diseasespt_BR
dc.subjectAir transportationpt_BR
dc.titleWorldwide COVID-19 spreading explained : traveling numbers as a primary driver for the pandemic.pt_BR
dc.typeArtigo publicado em periodicopt_BR
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