Vertical social distancing policy is ineffective to contain the COVID-19 pandemic.

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dc.contributor.authorDuczmal, Luiz Henrique
dc.contributor.authorAlmeida, Alexandre Celestino Leite de
dc.contributor.authorDuczmal, Denise Bulgarelli
dc.contributor.authorAlves, Claudia Regina Lindgren
dc.contributor.authorMagalhães, Flávia Costa Oliveira
dc.contributor.authorLima, Max Sousa de
dc.contributor.authorSilva, Ivair Ramos
dc.contributor.authorTakahashi, Ricardo Hiroshi Caldeira
dc.date.accessioned2022-03-03T18:55:00Z
dc.date.available2022-03-03T18:55:00Z
dc.date.issued2020pt_BR
dc.description.abstractConsidering numerical simulations, this study shows that the so-called vertical social distancing health policy is ineffective to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. We present the SEIR-Net model, for a network of social group interactions, as a development of the classic mathematical model of SEIR epidemics (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected (symptomatic and asymptomatic)- Removed). In the SEIR-Net model, we can simulate social contacts between groups divided by age groups and analyze different strategies of social distancing. In the vertical distancing policy, only older people are distanced, whereas in the horizontal distancing policy all age groups adhere to social distancing. These two scenarios are compared to a control scenario in which no intervention is made to distance people. The vertical distancing scenario is almost as bad as the control, both in terms of people infected and in the acceleration of cases. On the other hand, horizontal distancing, if applied with the same intensity in all age groups, significantly reduces the total infected people “flattening the disease growth curve”. Our analysis considers the city of Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, but similar conclusions apply to other cities as well. Code implementation of the model in R-language is provided in the supplementary material.pt_BR
dc.identifier.citationDUCZMAL, L. H. et al. Vertical social distancing policy is ineffective to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. Cadernos de Saude Publica, v. 36, 2020. Disponível em: <https://www.scielo.br/j/csp/a/KSb5ZrRr3LHbGhnWDNcBc7R/?lang=en>. Acesso em: 25 ago. 2021.pt_BR
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1590/0102-311X00084420pt_BR
dc.identifier.issn1678-4464
dc.identifier.urihttp://www.repositorio.ufop.br/jspui/handle/123456789/14621
dc.language.isoen_USpt_BR
dc.rightsabertopt_BR
dc.rights.licenseThis article is published in Open Access under the Creative Commons Attribution license, which allows use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, without restrictions, as long as the original work is correctly cited. Fonte: o PDF do artigo.pt_BR
dc.subjectEpidemiologic modelspt_BR
dc.titleVertical social distancing policy is ineffective to contain the COVID-19 pandemic.pt_BR
dc.title.alternativeA política de distanciamento social vertical é ineficaz para conter a pandemia da COVID-19.pt_BR
dc.typeArtigo publicado em periodicopt_BR
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