Hydroelectric production from Brazil's São Francisco River could cease due to climate change and inter-annual variability.

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dc.contributor.authorJong, Pieter de
dc.contributor.authorTanajura, Clemente Augusto Souza
dc.contributor.authorSánchez, Antonio Santos
dc.contributor.authorDargaville, Roger
dc.contributor.authorKiperstok, Asher
dc.contributor.authorTorres, Ednildo Andrade
dc.date.accessioned2019-04-03T16:07:26Z
dc.date.available2019-04-03T16:07:26Z
dc.date.issued2018
dc.description.abstractBy the end of this century higher temperatures and significantly reduced rainfall are projected for the Brazilian North and Northeast (NE) regions due to Global Warming. This study examines the impact of these long-term rainfall changes on the Brazilian Northeast's hydroelectric production. Various studies that use different IPCC models are examined in order to determine the average rainfall reduction by the year 2100 in comparison to baseline data from the end of the 20th century. It was found that average annual rainfall in the NE region could decrease by approximately 25–50% depending on the emissions scenario. Analysis of historical rainfall data in the São Francisco basin during the last 57 years already shows a decline of more than 25% from the 1961–90 long-termaverage.Moreover, average annual rainfall in the basin has been belowits long-termaverage every year bar one since 1992. If this declining trend continues, rainfall reduction in the basin could be evenmore severe than the most pessimistic model projections. That is, the marked drop in average rainfall projected for 2100, based on the IPCC highemissions scenario, could actually eventuate before 2050. Due to the elasticity factor between rainfall and streamflow and because of increased amounts of irrigation in the São Francisco basin, the reduction in the NE's average hydroelectric production in the coming decades could be double the predicted decline in rainfall. Conversely, it is estimated that wind power potential in the Brazilian NE will increase substantially by 2100. Therefore both wind and solar power will need to be significantly exploited in order for the NE region to sustainably replace lost hydroelectric production.pt_BR
dc.identifier.citationJONG, P de. et al.; Hydroelectric production from Brazil's São Francisco River could cease due to climate change and inter-annual variability. Science of the Total Environment, v. 634, p. 1540-1553, 2018. Disponível em: <https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969718310143?via%3Dihub>. Acesso em: 15 fev. 2019.pt_BR
dc.identifier.issn00489697
dc.identifier.urihttp://www.repositorio.ufop.br/handle/123456789/10922
dc.identifier.uri2https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969718310143?via%3Dihubpt_BR
dc.language.isoen_USpt_BR
dc.rightsabertopt_BR
dc.subjectRainfallpt_BR
dc.subjectStreamflowpt_BR
dc.subjectRenewable energypt_BR
dc.subjectDroughtpt_BR
dc.titleHydroelectric production from Brazil's São Francisco River could cease due to climate change and inter-annual variability.pt_BR
dc.typeArtigo publicado em periodicopt_BR
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