A statistical analysis of the relationship of civil construction GDP to cement production in Brazil.
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Date
2022
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Abstract
The ICC plays an important role in the Brazilian economy. This participation in the country's GDP remains, on
average, above 5% per year. Cement, one of the main resources in this context, is used in almost all types of
constructions in the country. The Brazil are among the 10 largest producers in the world and cement be the main
component of concrete, makes widely used. The generation of different data is the starting point for decisions,
optimization and forecasting of the activities of this communication network. To transform this data into information,
many institutions use with tools such as Data Science. In this sense, this article presents the result of analysis of the
behavior of cement production in Brazil, based on results generated through Machine Learning. Trends and
seasonality periods were identified, as well as prediction models for future periods were proposed. Verified the
existence of a strong positive correlation between cement production and the ICC GDP in Brazil. Machine Learning
models were proposed and compared to predict the ICC GDP based on the annual cement production in Brazil, which
showed high accuracy. It was concluded that the Ensemble Learning methods adapted better to the data, especially
Random Forest.
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Keywords
Construction, Produção de cimento, Ciencia de datos, Machine learning
Citation
SOUZA, A. C. R. da R.; GOMES, H. C.; GUIMARÃES, I. F. G. A statistical analysis of the relationship of civil construction GDP to cement production in Brazil. Research, Society and Development, v. 11, n. 7, artigo e27011729902, mai. 2022. Disponível em: <https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/29902>. Acesso em: 03 maio 2023.