From Spanish Flu to Syndemic COVID-19 : long- standing sanitarian vulnerability of Manaus, warnings from the Brazilian rainforest gateway.

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dc.contributor.authorRibeiro, Sérvio Pontes
dc.contributor.authorReis, Alexandre Barbosa
dc.contributor.authorCruz, Wesley Francisco Dáttilo da
dc.contributor.authorSilva, Alcides Volpato Carneiro de Castro e
dc.contributor.authorBarbosa, Eduardo Augusto Gonçalves
dc.contributor.authorVital, Wendel Coura
dc.contributor.authorGóes Neto, Aristóteles
dc.contributor.authorAzevedo, Vasco Ariston de Carvalho
dc.contributor.authorFernandes, Geraldo Wilson Afonso
dc.date.accessioned2022-09-16T21:20:56Z
dc.date.available2022-09-16T21:20:56Z
dc.date.issued2021pt_BR
dc.description.abstractA second deadlier wave of COVID-19 and the causes of the recent public health collapse of Manaus are compared with the Spanish fl u events in that city, and Brazil. Historic sanitarian problems, and its hub position in the Brazilian airway network are combined drivers of deadly events related to COVID-19. These drivers were amplifi ed by misleading governance, highly transmissible variants, and relaxation of social distancing. Several of these same factors may also have contributed to the dramatically severe outbreak of H1N1 in 1918, which caused the death of 10% of the population in seven months. We modelled Manaus parameters for the present pandemic and confi rmed that lack of a proper social distancing might select the most transmissible variants. We succeeded to reproduce a fi rst severe wave followed by a second stronger wave. The model also predicted that outbreaks may last for up to fi ve and half years, slowing down gradually before the disease disappear. We validated the model by adjusting it to the Spanish Flu data for the city, and confi rmed the pattern experienced by that time, of a fi rst stronger wave in October-November 1918, followed by a second less intense wave in February-March 1919.pt_BR
dc.identifier.citationRIBEIRO, S. P. et al. From Spanish Flu to Syndemic COVID-19: long- standing sanitarian vulnerability of Manaus, warnings from the Brazilian rainforest gateway. Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências, v. 93, 2021. Disponível em: <https://www.scielo.br/j/aabc/a/FXxhz6cZ6q4gk5smGjvrjhn/?lang=en>. Acesso em: 29 abr. 2022.pt_BR
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1590/0001-3765202120210431pt_BR
dc.identifier.issn1678-2690
dc.identifier.urihttp://www.repositorio.ufop.br/jspui/handle/123456789/15362
dc.language.isoen_USpt_BR
dc.rightsabertopt_BR
dc.rights.licenseThis is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). Fonte: o PDF do artigo.pt_BR
dc.subjectSARS-CoV-2pt_BR
dc.subjectTropical urban healthpt_BR
dc.subjectEcohealthpt_BR
dc.subjectNative communitiespt_BR
dc.subjectModelling disease disseminationpt_BR
dc.titleFrom Spanish Flu to Syndemic COVID-19 : long- standing sanitarian vulnerability of Manaus, warnings from the Brazilian rainforest gateway.pt_BR
dc.typeArtigo publicado em periodicopt_BR
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