Intensity-duration-frequency curves in the municipality of Belo Horizonte from the perspective of non-stationarity.
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Date
2021
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Abstract
The study of changes in hydrological data series is of great scientific and practical importance for water resources systems, since these
are normally projected based on the assumption that time series is statistically stationary. However, such assumption may not be verified
when aspects as changes or climatic variability are considered. In this sense, the present study sought to identify trends in maximum
rainfall intensities in Belo Horizonte (MG) and propose, in view of the observed results, a new intensity-duration-frequency (IDF)
curve from the perspective of non-stationarity. For the trend analysis, statistical tests were applied, and an adaptation of the concept
“Minimax Design Life Level” was proposed to quantify rainfall intensities and fit a non-stationary IDF curve. As a result, different
trends were detected, with an increase in rainfall intensities for durations equal to or less than 1 hour starting in 2000. Regarding the
IDF relationships, the obtained rain intensities were up to 48% higher than current estimates. Our results emphasize the need to
periodically review IDF relationships in order to avoid under or overestimation in the design of hydraulic structures.
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Keywords
Climate change, Heavy rainfall, Extreme precipitation, Non-stationary intensity-duration-frequency
Citation
NUNES, A. de A. et al. Intensity-duration-frequency curves in the municipality of Belo Horizonte from the perspective of non-stationarity. Revista Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos, Porto Alegre, v. 26, 2021. Disponível em: <https://www.scielo.br/j/rbrh/a/t7kz6w35kQKbnbvGKZ5HnvK/abstract/?lang=pt&format=html>. Acesso em: 29 abr. 2022.