South America power integration, Bolivian electricity export potential and bargaining power : an OSeMOSYS SAMBA approach.
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Date
2017
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Abstract
Bolivia has plenty of energy resources that can supply not only its own electricity demand but has also
the potential to export surplus production to its neighbors in South America. This study presents a
comparative analysis of the electricity export potential of Bolivia, considering modeling results carried
out by the Bolivian government and those from OSeMOSYS SAMBA - South America Model Base. Four
scenarios were modelled from different conceptions of strategic large hydropower combinations. The
scenarios comparison highlights the cross-border potential trade between Bolivia and neighboring
countries, mainly Brazil. Using a Cooperative Games approach, through the calculation of the Shapley
value, the bargaining power of Bolivia was identified, reaching its higher value in the scenario where El
Bala and Cachuela Esperanza dams are present. The cooperative games approach provides a better understanding
of electricity trade opportunities to support policy makers in international negotiations, thus
considerably reducing incentives to non-cooperative actions.
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Keywords
Power systems integration, Cooperative games, Cross-border electricity trade, Shapley value
Citation
MOURA, G. N. P. de et al. South America power integration, Bolivian electricity export potential and bargaining power: an OSeMOSYS SAMBA approach. Energy Strategy Reviews, v. 17, p. 27-36, 2017. Disponível em: <http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X17300299>. Acesso em: 29 set. 2017.