Browsing by Author "Legey, Luiz Fernando Loureiro"

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    A Brazilian perspective of power systems integration using OSeMOSYS SAMBA – South America Model Base – and the bargaining power of neighbouring countries : a cooperative games approach.
    (2018) Moura, Gustavo Nikolaus Pinto de; Legey, Luiz Fernando Loureiro; Howells, Mark
    This paper intends to contribute to a better understanding of both advantages and drawbacks of power systems interconnection processes between Brazil and its South American neighbours. Based on data available in national and international reports, three scenarios for the power supply sector expansion were modelled in OSeMOSYS. The Brazilian perspective of power integration considers funding strategic hydro projects in Argentina, Bolivia, Guyana and Peru. An alternative to the power integration process considers higher penetration of distributed photovoltaics and biogas power plants as well as lower hydro capacity expansion in Brazil. Features related to costs, carbon emissions, hydro reservoirs, technological performance, electricity demand, population growth, time zones and reserve margin were considered. The comparison of different scenarios provides insights regarding the contribution of renewable energy generation and sheds light on cross-border trade perspectives between Brazil and other countries in South America. Using a cooperative games approach, the bargaining power of each country (player) was calculated by applying the Shapley value concept. Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Peru and Guyana have the largest bargaining power, either as exporter or importer.
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    South America power integration, Bolivian electricity export potential and bargaining power : an OSeMOSYS SAMBA approach.
    (2017) Moura, Gustavo Nikolaus Pinto de; Legey, Luiz Fernando Loureiro; Peña Balderrama, Gabriela; Howells, Mark
    Bolivia has plenty of energy resources that can supply not only its own electricity demand but has also the potential to export surplus production to its neighbors in South America. This study presents a comparative analysis of the electricity export potential of Bolivia, considering modeling results carried out by the Bolivian government and those from OSeMOSYS SAMBA - South America Model Base. Four scenarios were modelled from different conceptions of strategic large hydropower combinations. The scenarios comparison highlights the cross-border potential trade between Bolivia and neighboring countries, mainly Brazil. Using a Cooperative Games approach, through the calculation of the Shapley value, the bargaining power of Bolivia was identified, reaching its higher value in the scenario where El Bala and Cachuela Esperanza dams are present. The cooperative games approach provides a better understanding of electricity trade opportunities to support policy makers in international negotiations, thus considerably reducing incentives to non-cooperative actions.