Derivation and external validation of a simple prediction model for the diagnosis of type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in the Brazilian urban population.

Sousa, André Gustavo Pires de; Pereira, Alexandre da Costa; Marquezine, Guilherme Figueiredo; Nascimento Neto, Raimundo Marques do; Freitas, Silvia Nascimento de; Nicolato, Roney Luiz de Carvalho; Coelho, George Luiz Lins Machado; Rodrigues, Sérgio Lamego; Mill, José Geraldo; Krieger, José Eduardo

Derivation and external validation of a simple prediction model for the diagnosis of type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in the Brazilian urban population.

Date

2009

Authors

Sousa, André Gustavo Pires de

Pereira, Alexandre da Costa

Marquezine, Guilherme Figueiredo

Nascimento Neto, Raimundo Marques do

Freitas, Silvia Nascimento de

Nicolato, Roney Luiz de Carvalho

Coelho, George Luiz Lins Machado

Rodrigues, Sérgio Lamego

Mill, José Geraldo

Krieger, José Eduardo

Abstract

A risk score model was developed based in a population of 1,224 individuals from the general population without known diabetes aging 35 years or more from an urban Brazilian population sample in order to select individuals who should be screened in subsequent testing and improve the efficacy of public health assurance. External validation was performed in a second, independent, population from a different city ascertained through a similar epidemiological protocol. The risk score was developed by multiple logistic regression and model performance and cutoff values were derived from a receiver operating characteristic curve. Model’s capacity of predicting fasting blood glucose levels was tested analyzing data from a 5-year follow-up protocol conducted in the general population. Items independently and significantly associated with diabetes were age, BMI and known hypertension. Sensitivity, specificity and proportion of further testing necessary for the best cutoff value were 75.9, 66.9 and 37.2%, respectively. External validation confirmed the model’s adequacy (AUC equal to 0.72). Finally, model score was also capable of predicting fasting blood glucose progression in non-diabetic individuals in a 5-year follow-up period. In conclusion, this simple diabetes risk score was able to identify individuals with an increased likelihood of having diabetes and it can be used to stratify subpopulations in which performing of subsequent tests is necessary and probably cost-effective.

Keywords

Diabetes prediction model, Risk score

Citation

SOUSA, A. G. P. de et al. Derivation and external validation of a simple prediction model for the diagnosis of type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in the Brazilian urban population. European Journal of Epidemiology, v. 24, p. 101-109, 2009. Disponível em: <http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10654-009-9314-2>. Acesso em: 20 jan. 2017.